It ain’t easy to spin dismal job numbers

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The Conservative government relied on a familiar refrain to try to spin its way out of Friday’s awful jobs report released by Statistics Canada.

First, the facts:
  • Over the past year, “one full-time job was added for every four part-time jobs.”
Second, the analysis from Bay Street:
  • Scotiabank note calls jobs numbers a shocker, weakest job growth by far since the recession.”
  • “Disappointment across the board,” said Mark Chandler, head of fixed income and currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
  • “That full-time employment growth is nearly flat in the past year while part-time job growth is up 2.5 per cent ‘indicates that businesses are not eager to expand payrolls,'” said Arlene Kish, senior principal economist at IHS Global Insight.
Third, a recap of past Conservative spin:

Whenever faced with bad economic news, the Conservatives claim that Canada leads the G-7 in jobs and economic growth since the recession. They make this misleading statement by using selective statistics.

When population growth and purchasing power are taken into account to get the complete picture, Canada falls behind G-7 countries Germany, Japan and the United States. That’s fourth place (out of 7!).

Fouth, the go-to spin:

Watch Industry Minister James Moore try to spin the bad news using the “Yah, but we’re still #1” discredited stat.

Job vacancies, three-month average ending in June 2013

Statistics Canada reports 6.3 unemployed people for every job vacancy in Canada in June 2013. That’s up from 5.2 a year earlier.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca

PDF version

Previous release

Canadian businesses reported 216,000 job vacancies in June, down 47,000 from June 2012. For every job vacancy, there were 6.3 unemployed people, up from 5.2 a year earlier. The increase in the unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio was the result of fewer job vacancies, as the number of unemployed people was little changed.

Ratio increases in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta

Provincially, Ontario had the most notable increase in the unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, going from 6.8 unemployed people for every job vacancy in June 2012 to 8.6 in June 2013. The ratio increased because there were fewer job vacancies in the province, as the number of unemployed people was little changed.

Chart 1 
Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, all unemployed, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Bar clustered chart – Chart 1: Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, all unemployed, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Chart description: Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, all unemployed, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

CSV version of chart 1

Saskatchewan’s unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio also went up, from 1.8 to 2.6, as the number of job vacancies fell faster than the number of unemployed.

The ratio in Alberta rose over this 12-month period from 1.6 unemployed people per job vacancy to 2.4. The increase in the ratio was due to fewer job vacancies, as the number of unemployed people was little changed.

Despite these increases, Saskatchewan and Alberta remained the provinces with the lowest unemployment-to-job vacancy ratios.

In the remaining provinces, the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratios were little changed compared with June 2012.

Ratio by sector

Among the large industrial sectors, construction had the highest number of unemployed people per vacancy, at 8.0 in June, up from 3.9 in June 2012. The entire increase was the result of fewer job vacancies in this sector.

The ratio in wholesale trade rose from 2.0 in June 2012 to 4.4 in June 2013. The increase occurred as the number of unemployed went up, while job vacancies declined notably.

Chart 2 
Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, by largest industrial sector, unemployed people who last worked within past 12 months, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Bar clustered chart – Chart 2: Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, by largest industrial sector, unemployed people who last worked within past 12 months, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Chart description: Unemployment-to-job vacancies ratio, by largest industrial sector, unemployed people who last worked within past 12 months, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

CSV version of chart 2

Manufacturing had a ratio of 5.7 unemployed people for every vacant job in June, up from 4.4 a year earlier, as there were fewer vacancies in this sector.

The ratio in transportation and warehousing increased from 2.5 in June 2012 to 3.6 in June 2013.

The unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio in health care and social assistance was 1.3 in June, the lowest of all industrial sectors. This ratio was unchanged from 12 months earlier. There was little change among the other large industrial sectors.

Among the smaller industrial sectors, regional and Aboriginal public administration as well as “other services” saw an increase in their ratio over the 12-month period, as they both posted an increase in the number of unemployed and little change in job vacancies.

Job vacancy rates

The job vacancy rate is defined as the number of vacant positions divided by total labour demand, that is, occupied positions plus vacant positions. It corresponds to the share of jobs that are unfilled out of all payroll jobs available. Higher job vacancy rates are often associated with periods of economic growth, while lower rates may be associated with periods of slower growth or economic contraction.

In June, the national job vacancy rate among Canadian businesses was 1.5%, down from 1.8% a year earlier.

Chart 3 
Job vacancy rate, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Bar clustered chart – Chart 3: Job vacancy rate, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

Chart description: Job vacancy rate, by province, three-month average, June 2012 and June 2013

CSV version of chart 3

Provincially, the job vacancy rate declined in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador, while it was little changed elsewhere.

In Alberta, the rate fell from 3.4% to 2.4% between June 2012 and June 2013. Over the same period, the job vacancy rate declined from 3.3% to 2.0% in Saskatchewan, from 1.5% to 1.2% in Ontario, and from 1.5% to 1.1% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Job vacancy rates by sector

Compared with 12 months earlier, the job vacancy rate declined in six sectors and was little changed in the other sectors.

Construction had 13,000 job vacancies and a job vacancy rate of 1.4% in June, down from 3.0% in June 2012. Retail trade also saw its rate decline from 1.8% to 1.4% over the same period. The sector had 26,000 job vacancies in June 2013.

The job vacancy rate in manufacturing fell from 1.3% to 1.1% in the 12-month period, with 17,000 job vacancies in June 2013. Wholesale trade saw its rate decline from 1.7% to 1.0%, with 7,300 vacancies. The vacancy rate in finance and insurance fell from 1.4% to 0.9%, with 6,400 vacancies.

The lowest job vacancy rate was recorded in educational services, at 0.5%, down from 0.7% a year earlier. In June 2013, there were 5,700 job vacancies in this sector.

Average weekly non-farm payroll earnings rise to $919 in June: StatsCan

Tuesday, 27 August 2013 The Canadian Press

OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says average weekly earnings of non-farm payroll employees were $919 in June, up 0.2 per cent from the previous month.

It says earnings increased 2.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Year-over-year growth in average weekly earnings outpaced the national average in five of the largest industrial sectors.

Average weekly earnings grew by 8.1 per cent to $764 in administrative and support services, while they increased by 4.9 per cent, to $1,107, in wholesale trade.

In professional, scientific and technical services, weekly earnings increased 3.6 per cent to $1,273.

In contrast, weekly earnings in accommodation and food services decreased by 2.2 per cent to $362 in the 12 months to June.