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Comparison of Federal Election Results to Nanos Estimates

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An election is a torture chamber for politicians, voters and pollsters – and rightly so. 

At Nanos we take very seriously our responsibility as a research firm and the trust Canadians place in our numbers. In addition to the exceptional coverage by our clients — CTV News and the Globe and Mail, and Bloomberg News — the Nanos numbers were cited by virtually all major media outlets in Canada and several international ones such as by The Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Guardian Newspaper in the UK and the BBC.

Over the course of the election, the Nanos numbers were also a central part of the dialogue on social media.  For example, our polling was cited in 55.2 million tweets during the campaign.

A review of our tracking in Canada’s 42nd federal election suggests that the Nanos track record of reliability in national and provincial elections continues from strength to strength.  Our approach of using random land- and cell-line samples with live agents, in our opinion, remains the most consistently robust means of measuring opinion.

Here is a comparison of the election results to the Nanos data using the Election Canada data as of 1:20 am ET.

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As you can see, this contributes to the Nanos track record which is among the most consistently accurate for national and provincial elections in Canada. 

For this federal election, Nanos accurately called the winner in all regions, the results for every party were well within the margin of error and accurately forecast the Liberal victory.

Nanos Nightly Leadership Tracking – Preferred PM: Trudeau (35.5%), Harper (29.1%), Mulcair (18.9%), May (5.2%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 18th

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Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 18th)

Trudeau closes campaign ahead of Harper as preferred Prime Minister

  • Leadership – Asked who they preferred as Prime Minister 35.5% said Trudeau, 29.1% said Harper, 18.9% said Mulcair, 5.2% said May, 1.8% said Duceppe and 9.6% of Canadians were unsure.
  • Nanos Party Power Index – The Index which is a composite of a series of questions including ballot preferences and impressions of the leaders had the Liberals at 58.1 out of a possible 100 points, the NDP with 49.8 points, the Conservatives with 49.3 points, the Greens with 30.4 points, and the BQ with 31.5 points in Quebec.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Today’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,400 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,400 respondents is ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20. 

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 16 to 18, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Data Summary for period ending October 18th, 2015:

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Nanos Nightly Ballot Tracking: Liberal (37.3%), Conservative (30.5%), NDP (22.1%), Green (4.7%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 17th

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Liberal seven point advantage continues over closing weekend

  • National Ballot – Tracking over the closing weekend has the Liberals with a seven point advantage over the Conservatives.  The Liberals have 37.3% support, the Conservatives 30.5%, the NDP 22.1%, and the Greens are at 4.7% nationally.
  • One Month Change – Compared to a month ago, the Liberals are up six points, the NDP are down nine points, and the Conservatives are up two points. The Liberals have been the primary beneficiaries of the decline in NDP support over the course of the campaign and over the past month the Liberal – NDP trend lines have been mirror images of themselves.
  • Larger Sample – Please note that today’s three day rolling average is based on 2,000 interviews (800 interviews Saturday, 800 interviews Friday and 400 interviews Thursday).
  • Last Report – Nanos will continue to do tracking today (Sunday) and will release its last election survey this evening ahead of the Elections Canada deadline.  No new polling can be released on Election Day but polls released prior to Election Day can be reported on Election Day (Section 328 of The Canada Elections Act).

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday and Saturday.  Today’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,000 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,000 respondents is ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 15 to 17, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

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