Liberals score highest on Nanos Index, NDP hit new three year low (ending July 22, 2016)

The Nanos Party Power Index

Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index, which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot preferences and impressions of the leaders has the Liberals with 66.0 out of a possible 100 points, the Conservatives registered 45.9 points, the NDP 44.8 points, the Greens 35.2 points and the BQ 26.4 points (Quebec only).  Of note, the score for the NDP represents the lowest score on record since the Index was created in August 2013.

  • Accessible Voters –  Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party, more than six in ten Canadians (62.6%) would consider voting Liberal, 39.9 per cent would consider voting Conservative, 38.4 per cent would consider voting NDP and 30.4 per cent would consider voting Green.
The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out.

To view the detailed tracking visit our website

Methodology

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a party power brand index for each party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand power and 100 means it has maximum brand power. A score above 50 is an indication of brand power for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand strength or weakness and also the brand power of one federal party relative to another.The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians, using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over.

The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada, and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada.

The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The current wave of tracking is based on a four-week rolling average of 1,000 Canadians (250 per week) ending July 22nd, 2016.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite “Nanos Party Power Index” as the source.

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Editorial: Electoral status quo fails us all | Edmonton Journal

We need a new system that does a better job reflecting those commonalities. And one less likely to leave us feeling that if we vote for our favourite, we’ll just end up helping our least favourite win.

Source: Editorial: Electoral status quo fails us all | Edmonton Journal

Are Canadians “fickle, wing nuts”? Is Trudeau “unprepared, gaffe prone”? Former U.S. Senate Aide Says They Are

October 21, 2015   Andrew Phillip Chernoff  Just Saying….Just-saying

Trudeau Victory Bad For U.S., World At Large: Sean Kennedy

Sean Kennedy did not like the 2015 Federal Election result.

He  is all sad and crying tears for the nation of Canada, after years of having a man crush on Stephen Harper.

“The downfall of the Harper government is a defeat for a conservative admired by many on the right in U.S. politics,” according to Kennedy.

Who is Sean Kennedy?  Sean Kennedy is a writer based in Washington. Previously, he was a U.S. Senate aide, television producer and a fellow at public policy think tanks. He lived in Canada and observed the last federal election in Canada firsthand., according to CNN.

I think his head was in the cloud on some wacky-tobacco, and in reruns of his favourite Richard Nixon home movies, when he coined his dribble.

In his article for CNN, titled “Justin Trudeau victory in Canada is bad news for U.S. conservatives”, Kennedy let’ it all hang out, not flattered in the least about the Canadian election outcome;  sulking over the Harper conservatives loss  and his disdain for the Canadian voters for getting his man in Canada,  “…booted out of office after nine years of steadily manoeuvring the ship of state.”

Steadily manoeuvring Canada? Maybe, over Niagara Falls.

On how and why Canadians voted for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in resounding fashion, Kennedy explains it this way:

The fickle Canadian voters were tired, though. Tired of the scandals and unforced errors that come with years of unchecked power (Canada’s parliamentary system is a unitary executive-legislative branch). Political appointees and friends of Harper’s couldn’t resist feeding at the taxpayers’ trough. Though the trail never led directly to Harper, the scandal only fed a public perception that the cool-to-a-fault, calculating (and yes, even Nixonian) Prime Minister was up to no good.

We fickle Canadians…..The majority of the Canadian electorate punted Harper to the sidelines, and did not vote for the  Lord and Saviour Stephen Harper. Canadians instead were:  patriotic, tried, responsible, true, pertinacious, tenacious, secure, staunchincorruptiblenationalistic, unalterable, sure.

Kennedy just can not understand it. His American peanut-sized brain just can’t put his head around it.

Harper was defeated by, “ the unprepared, gaffe-prone but well-coiffed son of a former prime minister, Justin Trudeau.” , Kennedy writes, probably after another puff of his wacky tobacco.

How is that possible?  How was it that the Harper punch bowl just did not have enough of that elixir to make us all Harperites and submissive to his voting will at the ballot box from coast-to-coast-to-coast?

After all, look what  what Harper and the Conservatives did for Canadians,eh:

Canada under Harper’s leadership was a conservative wonderland with balanced budgets, increasingly low taxes and a robust foreign policy aimed at taking on terrorists and bullies the world over.

Harper’s fate is all the more shocking when you consider how well Canada weathered the 2008-2009 financial crisis under his watch. He didn’t bail out anyone (except the U.S.-based auto industry), no financial institutions failed and the Canadian economy hummed along.

With sky-high oil prices and other resources reaching record highs, Canada got rich as other industrial powers paid top dollar (or top loonie, if you will) for the raw materials they needed to grow. As oil prices fell off a cliff, the Canadian economy slowed, even briefly dipping into recession this year. But Harper made the necessary cuts and kept taxes low. Amazingly, he balanced the budget ahead of schedule as the commodity markets nosedived.

When Harper introduced anti-terror legislation called C-51, or “Canada’s Patriot Act,” after prominent attacks inspired by radical Islam, the wing nuts of Canada’s left came out of the woodwork, painting the Prime Minister as a tyrant in the making.

Harper took a stand for an inclusive, but fully Westernized and assimilating Canada — banning the niqab, or face veil, from being worn at citizenship swearing-in ceremonies.

Canada is in for it now. Prepare for end times. The world will now turn its back on Canada.

According to Kennedy, Harper and the Conservatives,  were the authors and implementers of, “Canada’s Miracle”, which was:

….surviving the financial crisis, balancing budgets, slashing red tape and taxes while maintaining a healthy welfare state….

According to Kennedy, “The Conservative Party’s loss is to the detriment of its neighbours to the south and the world at large…”

Well, in the Great White North, in a country called Canada, on October 19, 2015, the Canadian voters took back Canada from Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.

Stay within your borders United States and Global community; or be prepared to suffer the consequences of challenging Canadian sovereignty, if you dare; upon which every disobedient nation  will be subjected to the unleashing of hundreds of thousands of hockey pucks.

My advice to Kennedy, the United States of America, and the rest of the Nations in the world, who have issue with democracy at its finest,  as demonstrated by the massive, historic, resounding landslide of Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal Party: Most unlearned reviewer! fortunate would it be for your own sakes and ours, could you but fix your eyes upon the stifling smoke issuing from your own home, instead of keeping them busy with your spy-glasses in watching our  motions across in Canada.{Note: thanks be to Louisa Susanna Cheves McCord, and her book Political and Social Essays for assistance in the advice}

Just Saying…..

Federal Election 2015: Voting Records Are Made To Be Broken: LET’S DO IT!!!—Just Saying….

October 19, 2015          Andrew Phillip Chernoff                Just Saying….

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“Paradigm Shift” Needed In Ottawa

 On April 8, 1963, Canadians set a record unequaled or bettered since, with the highest percentage of voters in history when 80 per cent of all eligible voters in 1963 cast their ballots.

From: The Montreal Gazette – May 13, 1963:

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Elections Canada reported on Oct. 14th, 2015:
According to the preliminary figures, some 3.6 million electors voted at the advance polls in this general election. This is a 71% increase from the 2,100,855 electors who voted in advance in the 2011 general election.

So far, Canadians from coast-to coast-to coast are going to the polls in record numbers.

Indeed, Canadian democracy can scarcely be said to be in decline it seems, as has been reported recently.

Let’s make this “paradigm shift” happen in Ottawa, David Herle, principal partner at The Gandalf Group, a Toronto-based research and consulting company, urges because Canadians need to feel connected to Parliament and Parliament needs to be seen as relevant to their lives, he outlined in the article, Democracy and the decline of Parliament,  published May 2, 2013.

“Only then can we begin to close the gap between voters and our political institutions with the goal of ultimately strengthening our democracy.”  Herle continued.

Star columnist Bob Hepburn who interviewed Herle for the article, started out by introducing his readers to Herle this way:

Since his days as Paul Martin’s campaign chairman ended, David Herle has given a lot of thought to the state of our democracy and the increasing disconnect between Parliament and Canadians.

And the more Herle studies the issue, the more the former prime minister’s strategist worries.

“There’s a growing gap that could have serious long-term implications for the health of our democracy” from voter turnout to policy formation, Herle says over coffee one recent afternoon in downtown Toronto.

“Voters look at Ottawa these days and feel the issues being debated up there have no impact on their daily lives,” he says.

“There’s also a serious decline in what people expect from government. As well, they’ve stopped looking to government for help and for the most part they don’t think it matters who is in power.”

 

Hepburn stated in the article that a poll in Fall 2012, “suggested barely 27 per cent of Canadians believe Ottawa is dealing with issues we really care about.”

Most people are worried about daily issues, such as their children’s education, looking after aging parents and getting decent health care. But other than writing cheques to the provinces, Ottawa has opted out of health care, education, transportation and other issues that affect our normal lives.

There are no bold new ideas emerging from Ottawa today that will engage Canadians and make them feel that what happens in Parliament really does play a role in their lives.

No longer is there serious talk in Ottawa of programs that would affect most Canadians directly, such as a national child care strategy, a national plan for big cities or an agreement for natives along the lines of the Kelowna Accord signed by Martin.

Instead, there is a narrow set of issues that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is pursuing and for the most part the opposition parties are adhering to them.

Because voters have stopped looking to Parliament for help, Ottawa has stopped responding to their needs, Herle believes.

Well, Canadians are engaged in this federal election.

The early voting poll results indicated that in resounding fashion.

Whether it is to solidify the Harper’s Conservatives hold on Canada, or to make a statement that change is on the way with an exclamation point; Canadians are alive and well, and have risen to affect what kind of Parliament will play a role in their lives.

The implications for democracy are huge in this federal election when so many Canadians have believed already it was not a waste of time to try to make a difference or to attempt at creating meaningful change through their democratic right to vote.

https://i0.wp.com/canadians.org/sites/default/files/publications/HowToVote-General.jpg

According to Hepburn, Herle is not alone in voicing similar concerns:

Conservative MP Michael Chong (Wellington-Halton Hills), writing in Policy Options magazine in 2010, predicted that “if Parliament is becoming increasingly irrelevant to Canadians and is not central to public debate in Canada, then public policy will be determined in an increasingly non-democratic fashion.”

Chong suggested that reforming question period, the insult-laden daily shouting match that is the only reference most Canadians have with politics, is a necessary first step to restoring Parliament’s relevance. He called for improved decorum, more time both for questions and answers and a requirement that ministers actually respond to questions directed at them.

Chong is correct about the possible consequences for democracy and the role of Parliament. That’s because if voters have given up on Parliament, it means they have lost faith in politicians to look after their interests.

To not exercise your  constitutional right to vote and support a democratic Canadian government, would as Herle suggests,  “provide the ruling party with enormous leeway to abuse parliamentary traditions and procedures.”

Let’s introduce fresh air into our parliament and federal government and take back what is ours as Canadians: our right to decide; thereby beginning to, as Hepburn writes, “… close the gap between voters and our political institutions with the goal of ultimately strengthening our democracy.”

Just Saying……..

…..What’s that??….Who won???…..Who won, what??……Ohhhhhh……

The 1963 federal election resulted in the defeat of the minority Progressive Conservative (Tory) government of Prime Minister John Diefenbaker

The Liberal Party of Lester Pearson ran on a platform promising that, if elected, they would begin their term with “60 Days of Decision” on questions such as introducing a new Canadian flag, reforming health care, and a public pension plan, along with other legislative reforms.

Despite winning 41% of the vote, which is usually sufficient for ensuring the election of a majority government, the Liberals fell five seats short of their target. The Liberals formed a minority government that was dependent on the support of the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) in order to pass legislation.

The social-democratic NDP had been formed in 1961 by a socialist party, the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, and by the Canadian Labour Congress. The 1963 election was the second vote contested by the NDP. The party won slightly fewer votes, and two fewer seats, than they had received in the 1962 election. They were again disappointed by the failure of their new partnership with the labour movement to produce an electoral breakthrough, particularly in the province of Ontario, which has the largest population and the largest number of seats in the House of Commons.

Social Credit was unable to increase its representation in western Canada, and lost four of its Quebec seats – this despite gaining a slightly better share of the vote compared to 1962. Indeed, 1963 represented the highest share Social Credit would ever get. The continuing lop-sided result led to a split in the party when Thompson refused to step aside so that Caouette could become party leader. Caouette and his followers left the Social Credit Party to sit as a separate social credit caucus, the Ralliement des créditistes.=>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_election,_1963

Anybody see what I see…..I mean….does history really repeat itself???  Of course not….the 1963 Conservatives had a minority government….but a minority government is possible, is it not????? Who will it be….Check back on Tuesday, October 20, 2015.

Nanos Nightly Ballot Tracking: Liberal (37.1%), Conservative (29.4%), NDP (23.7%), Green (4.3%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 14th

Liberals hit an election high – largely at expense of the NDP

  • National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals at 37.1% followed by the Conservatives at 29.4%, the NDP at 23.7%, and the Greens at 4.3% nationally.
  • One Month Change –  A month ago it was practically a three way tie between the major parties in the federal election.  In the past 30 days the Liberals have gained about seven points (from 29.6% to 37.1%), the NDP have dropped about six points (from 30.4% to 23.7%) and the Conservatives have remained relatively unchanged (from 31.0% to 29.4%) factoring the margin of error for the research.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed.  The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 11, 13 and 14, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

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