With B.C.’s job market stalled, it’s time for a jobs plan that actually works

By Iglika Ivanova   August 14, 2013  http://rabble.ca

The latest B.C. job numbers reveal a picture of persistently high unemployment and stalled job creation. Since January, B.C.’s unemployment rate has been on a roller-coaster ride, down one month and up the next. All in all, there have been very few jobs created in 2013, far fewer than needed to employ our growing working-age population.

In fact, B.C. is a laggard in job creation this year, placing in the bottom three provinces in Canada. Only New Brunswick and Nova Scotia have created fewer jobs than us (they’ve actually seen job losses this year), while all other provinces have managed to achieve higher job growth.

This is a problem that requires governments — both federally and provincially — to take a more active position. Simply standing out of the way and waiting for foreign investors to create jobs is not going to do it; it’ll only mean that we’ll be stuck with persistently high unemployment for a long time, depriving young people of career opportunities, resulting in needless suffering of those who can’t find work, and slowing down our economy for years. We can’t afford to remain complacent.

The BC Jobs Plan isn’t going to do it. That’s because (as we’ve previously argued here), it doesn’t address the key underlying cause of our sluggish job creation — the lack of demand.

The reason why business isn’t investing and hiring more people is that the expectations for sales and profits are low. And that’s because B.C. consumers are spending less, weighed down by record high debt-levels, relatively high unemployment, family incomes that have stagnated for the last four years nationally and in B.C. have actually dropped since 2009, and a weak housing market that’s either heading for a prolonged slowdown or a crash in urban hot spots like Vancouver. None of these factors bode well for household’s new worth and future spending plans. It’s easy to see this creates a vicious circle — customers not spending means businesses don’t expand hiring, family incomes remain low, so customers spend even less.

Exporters are also having a hard time as China is slowing down, Europe is still fighting an economic slump that its own austerity policies brought on, and the U.S. is yet to recover.

To make matters worse, the B.C. government’s own policies, narrowly focused on reducing the deficit, have been working against the job market. Cost-cutting governments don’t buy things and reduce jobs (July marked the third consecutive month of job declines in the public sector for B.C.), so the slowdown continues.

The bottom line is, the economy works better when the money is circulating around, and that happens when more people have jobs and livable incomes. When consumers aren’t spending and businesses aren’t investing, the government must step in. What’s needed is a boost in family incomes that will inject money in the economy.

While provincial government policy can’t fully compensate for the global economic slowdown, and the federal government is better positioned to engage in stimulus spending, provincial governments can certainly cushion the blows. Public investments can directly create jobs and boost incomes, but they can also attract and drive private investments in infrastructure and other areas that will meet community needs.

In fact, the smartest way out of the jobs crisis is to put some of our collective resources to work on serious social and environmental problems like climate change, poverty and the affordability crisis facing many families. This way, we will create jobs in the short term while improving quality of life and setting our province up with the basis for a robust and sustainable economy in the future.

I’m talking about investments in high quality, universal and affordable early child care and education, hiring more teachers to relieve crowded classrooms in our schools and provide the needed supports for students with special needs, and boosting funding to make post-secondary education and skills training accessible to all who need it.

Other ideas for boosting job creation and our economy include: investments in making our homes, schools and hospitals more energy-efficient (which will create jobs in construction, reduce energy consumption and help us meet our climate goals), and a large-scale reforestation program post the pine-beetle devastation to breathe life into many rural communities. Youth-focused initiatives should also be on the table, to deal with the massive underemployment plaguing that cohort.

There’s no shortage of ideas. The stumbling block is that an effective job creation strategy will cost money, and this goes against the B.C. government’s current narrow focus on immediate deficit reduction.

The way to move forward is to acknowledge that without more revenues, our government can’t effectively provide the kind of leadership that’s needed at a time of persistent joblessness. And since our current fiscal challenges are the result of years of tax cuts, we can begin to address them with modest tax increases on those who, to quote Finance Minister de Jong, “have a little more” (see here and here).

While slightly higher deficits may be needed in the short term, B.C.’s in a solid position to run deficits for a few more years. The key is taking some of the idle money, the money that businesses aren’t currently investing and consumers aren’t spending, and putting them to work for the B.C. economy.

If you’re interested in looking at the numbers yourself, B.C. stats provides a good summary here and a detailed Excel spreadsheet here. For a detailed explanation of why our joblessness problem is worse than what the official unemployment rate would have you believe, see Jim Stanford’s excellent articles here and here.

Advice for BC NDP: Court the Rich

May election results reveal a surprising new voter bloc for the party.

By Tom Barrett, August 12, 2013, TheTyee.ca

As the B.C. New Democratic Party racks its neural tissues to discover how it blew a 20-point lead in the polls on May 14, it might be happy to learn that the news isn’t all bad.

Sure, the NDP was thumped in an election that everybody expected it to win. But it did make gains in some unexpected places.

Among the very rich, for example.

Final election results show the NDP made some of its biggest gains in some of B.C.’s wealthiest ridings. Ridings like Vancouver-False Creek, where the NDP increased its total by a healthy 3,479 votes over its 2009 showing. Ditto for Vancouver-Fairview (up 2,768 votes) and North Vancouver-Seymour (up 2,343 votes).

All three of those ridings are among the 10 constituencies with the highest median after-tax incomes, according to BC Stats. In fact, six of the 10 ridings where the NDP made its biggest gains May 14 are on that top 10 income list. (The figures, while the latest available for income by constituency, come from the 2006 census and are a bit dated. But heck, a riding that was wealthy in 2006 is probably still doing pretty well today.)

The table below shows the wealthy ridings where the NDP vote increased the most. The margin columns show who won the riding in the last two elections and the winner’s margin as a percentage of the total vote.

 

Riding

2009 Margin

2013 Margin

Vancouver-False Creek Lib 28.9 Lib 15.5
Vancouver-Fairview Lib 4.9 NDP 5.1
North Vancouver-Seymour Lib 31.8 Lib 18.0
Vancouver-Point Grey Lib 10.1 NDP 4.4
Surrey-Cloverdale Lib 32.9 Lib 30.5
West Vancouver-Capilano Lib 53.0 Lib 44.7

As shown, two of these wealthy ridings, Vancouver-Fairview and Vancouver-Point Grey, abandoned the Liberals for the NDP. And the Liberals’ victory margins fell in all of the other four. Clearly, in B.C. the class war is riddled with quislings.

As the NDP pores over its election flop, there is an obvious message in these numbers: it is time for the NDP to go after the crème de la crème. For whatever reason, British Columbia’s plutocrats are starting to take a shine to the left. New Democrats would be fools to rebuff them.

No big electoral shifts

It’s true that marketing the NDP to the one per cent would present some challenges. The party grassroots would be sure to cause a fuss, and making gains among the economic elite would require a long-term strategy.

Most of the ridings on the table above still boast pretty fat Liberal margins. If the trend from May 14 continues, the NDP won’t capture West Vancouver-Capilano, for example, until the election of 2037.

Still, that kind of long-range thinking might be what’s needed to succeed in B.C. politics. As the graph below shows, things haven’t changed much lately.

BCElectionGraph_600px.jpg

Ever since British Columbians recovered from the 2001 Liberal landslide, all the scandals and fevered rhetoric that B.C. politics is famous for have produced bupkis in terms of big electoral shifts.

Even the one bit of movement that shows up on the chart — the uptick in the Conservative vote — is misleading. The Conservatives ran 24 candidates in 2009. They ran 56 official candidates in 2013, plus another four candidates who weren’t listed as Conservatives on the ballot because of a paperwork snafu.

So, while the party’s overall share of the vote went up on May 14, its vote per candidate didn’t do much. In 2009, the Conservatives got 1,435 votes per candidate. In 2013, they got 1,532 votes per official candidate — 1,483 votes per candidate if you include the four “unofficial” Tories.

On the other hand, the other third party, the Greens, saw their share of the total vote stay flat at just over eight per cent. But that masks a remarkable increase.

In 2009, the Greens ran a full slate of 85 candidates. This year, they ran only 61 candidates. The Green vote per candidate jumped to 2,403 from 1,584 — an increase of 52 per cent.

The Green vote more than doubled in seven ridings, all but one of them in southern Vancouver Island.

And, if you’re wondering, while the Greens won their only seat in wealthy Oak Bay-Gordon Head, they didn’t make any real gains in the other most-affluent ridings.

Which still leaves the champagne-slurping fat-cat vote wide open for the NDP to exploit.  [Tyee]