Just Saying….Vancouver Canucks 2015-2016 Preview & Prediction

Just-saying    October 6, 2015         Andrew Chernoff

Young Canucks Inherit The Future Helped By Current Leaders

The second full season of the Canucks under the leadership of Trevor Linden, President of Hockey Operations; Jim Benning, General Manager; and Willie Desjardins, Head Coach, gets underway tomorrow (October 7, 2015) when they open up their 46th NHL season.

Out from last season are Kevin Bieksa, G Eddie Lack, F Zach Kassian, F Nick Bonino, D Adam Clendening, F Shawn Matthias, F Brad Richardson. In are F Brandon Sutter, F Brandon Prust and D Matt Bartkowski.

What is more significant are the young Canucks that have made the roster for Vancouver’s inaugural game of the 2015-2016 season against the Calgary Flames on Wednesday night.

Jake Virtanen, age 19; Ben Hutton, age 22; and Jared McCann, age 19, “the three Musketeers”, were rewarded for their exceptional training camps, resulting in Vancouver Canucks General Manager Jim Benning on Monday, placing forward Linden Vey and defencemen Frank Corrado, Alex Biega on waivers  with the intention of assigning them to the Utica Comets.

PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Forwards
Daniel Sedin – Henrik Sedin – Brandon Sutter
Sven Baertschi – Bo Horvat – Radim Vrbata
Alex Burrows – Jared McCann – Jannik Hansen
Brandon Prust – Adam Cracknell – Derek Dorsett
Jake Virtanen/Chris Higgins (injured)

Defensemen

Alexander Edler — Chris Tanev
Dan Hamhuis — Matt Bartkowski
Ben Hutton — Luca Sbisa
Alex Edler

Goaltenders

Ryan Miller
Jacob Markstrom

The Canucks are trying to do what the Detroit Red Wings have being doing for years and add in players into the line-up without skipping a beat, staying competitive and being among the top four teams in their conference, making the playoffs for the second straight year.

While that could be a challenge for the Canucks this season, the Canucks are steadfast in believing that the youth movement and promoting from within is the way to go, and are hoping that the young Canucks will inherit the future helped by the current veteran leadership that includes Daniel and Henrik Sedin (both 35),Ryan Miller (35), Radim Vrbata (34), Alex Burrows (34), Dan Hamhuis (32) and Brandon Prust (31).

Along with Brandon Sutter (26), Matt Bartkowski (27), sophomore Bo Horvat (20), Luca Sbsia (25), Chris Tanev (25), and Jacob Markstrom (25), Canucks management are hoping and are optimistic that they are on the right track.

The young players on the Canucks believe they definitely deserve the opportunity that they have earned and would like sufficient time to develop the chemistry with the veteran mix, to craft that future. McCann and Virtanen will both receive their 10 game look before the Canucks will have to decide whether to keep them or send them back to their respective junior teams.

This should be good news all around as the Canucks that did not make the team will provide the Canucks farm team with excellent depth should any injuries happen with the NHL team.

Head Coach Desjardins likes knowing when the Canucks go on the ice what each player will give him as it reinforces his confidence in that player and confidence that the game plan that the team was prepared to execute will result in a win and two important points in a division that missing out on too many points will result in a long summer.

On the other hand, Desjardin also knows the only way his confidence in a player can be developed and reinforced is by giving the players a chance to play, which could result in mistakes, including the possible loss of the game, and there’s the rub: without the chance, there is no experience, no mistakes, no learning, no proving you have learned your lesson and earned the confidence of your coach, your teammates and the organization.

PREDICTION

The Canucks had 101 points last season and it went down to the final few days of the season before the Canucks placing in the standings was known and they made it into the playoffs.

They will need at least that many points to make it into the playoffs in 2016 and they do not have a tested backup goaltender like Eddie Lack was when Miller got hurt late last season and the Canucks rode Lack’s coattails into the playoffs. And there will be no goalie in Utica that the Canucks can be confident in like Lack, if Miller gets hurt late in the season.

The youth movement is needed. There is no right time to start it. So, might as well go with it now. Saying that, there may be some games that the Canucks should win, that they lose.

I believe the Canucks will need at least 107 points to make the playoffs in 2016.

Most likely the Canucks will finish with 93 points, due to the youth movement and an unproven backup goaltender; and their inability to score timely goals. Also, of concern is their depth upfront to move players in and out to deal with scoring issues. You can only change lines so often during a game; and once again, you can only look to the farm team so much if you are going to make a shake up to boost an offence that is stalling. And stall it will.

Yet, I take the high road, and make this prediction:

Canucks to finish with 107 points, making the playoffs for the second straight season.

How will it be done? Hell, all they have to do is out work, out play, out shoot, out hit, and out chance their opponent’s both at home and on the road.

Unrealistic? Ye of little faith.       Just Saying….

 

 

 

 

Vancouver Canucks-Pittsburgh Penguins Game Preview For January 7, 2014

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VANCOUVER’S  2013.14 RECORD WHEN…

  • Score 4+ Goals: 10-0-0
  • Score 3 Goals or Less: 13-13-8
  • Allow 4+ Goals: 2-7-3
  • Allow 3 Goals or Less: 21-6-5
  • On 0 Days Rest: 6-3-2
  • On 1 Day Rest: 9-7-3
  • On 2+ Days Rest: 8-3-3
  • Score a PPG: 10-5-4
  • Give up a PPG: 4-3-5
  • 20+ Shots on Goal: 24-13-7
  • Less than 20 shots:

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Canucks have to do more than knock on the door of the NHL playoffs….Just Saying….

By Andrew Chernoff    January 1, 2014    Just-saying

Back on September 11, in this column, on the Vancouver Canucks and the upcoming 2013-2014 season titled Tortorella Has To Be True To His Coaching Style, I wrote:

I am not confident that they have the speed, finesse, the toughness or the depth to match or better most of the teams in their division or in the league at this point of training camp.

I will hold my thoughts of how well the Canucks might size up against the teams in their division, and whether they will make the playoffs until they have played their first month.

My pessimistic side says to wait until the end of January, 2014 to see if the Canucks take a nosedive and their more often than not “seasonal slump” or whether they defy the odds and play at least .500 or better and make a strong playoff run to finish the season on a high note.

I will not wait that long. I will give it 15 games.

Well, I have given it more than 15 games. I have given it until the end of 2013 before making further comment on the Canucks chances and how well the team sizes up against teams in their own division and whether they are a playoff contending team.

Obviously, I under estimated the Canucks, who as of this writing are twelve games above .500 and would have a playoff position today if the playoffs started, as a wildcard team.

So????? How have the Canucks faired:

CANUCK TEAM CHARTS

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Vancouver Canucks record as of morning of January, 2014:

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On that October 2013 road trip I said in my September 11, 2013 column:

Canucks will play seven road game stretch on the road from October 15 to October 25 which will indicate what their mettle is and how well forged they are as a competitive team and excelling at that high level of expectation or not.

So?? How’d they do? As you can see by the chart below they had 5 wins, 1 overtime loss and 1 regulation loss for 11 points out of a possible 14 points on the 7 game road trip.

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The Canucks showed that they were more than prepared for the seven game road trip, and more than impressed, and made a success of their first month of the season.

November was not so pleasant, and provided some adversity and struggles, that impacted the Canucks from having a winning month.

December showed the team come together under the system of their new coach and rack up 10 wins and 1 loss in 13 games for 22 points, putting Vancouver squarely in the hunt for a playoff position at the half way point of the season.

THE CANUCKS LAST HALF OF THE 2013-2014: MY THOUGHTS

So, stats aside, I am left with a three part question: what do the Canucks have to do, what does the future hold for the Canucks and how will it figure in the Canucks success the second half of the season?

Well, it won’t take long to get the answer to the first part of the question. It is simple and quickly answered.

As Iain MacIntyre, Vancouver Sun columnist, in his article Canucks second half must be equal to the first pointed out:

Despite a series of December injuries, including a broken jaw to front-line winger Alex Burrows and a strained groin suffered by starting goalie Roberto Luongo, the Canucks had a brilliant month, which gave them a good opening half of the National Hockey League season. Now, they need a second half that’s equally strong.

A healthy defence would help. So would a power play, which was 0-for-4 against the Flyers and, except for one three-week surge, has had awful results all season.

But, really, there is little for which to fault the Canucks through the first three months of the season, except for taking much of the fall to learn new coach John Tortorella‘s go-go-go system.

“I think we understand how we play and everybody is comfortable with that,” Tortorella said just before the game. “Some of the most important things when you get into the second half of the year and into playoffs – if we’re fortunate enough to get there – is situational play. I talk about it a lot. Everybody asks me: What’s situational play? There are a lot of things. It’s so many things.

“It’s how you win games. Understanding how to get momentum back on your side, how to keep it on your side. Third periods – down by a goal, up by a goal. All those things have to become second nature and we’ve still got a lot of work to do in that area.”

Apparently so.

I concur with Mr. MacIntyre, and that answers the first part of the question.

As for the second part of the question, we won’t have to wait long as January, like October, presents a big challenge for the Canucks, especially in their first eight games:

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As you can see by the schedule for January, the Canucks first eight games have some strong opponents, with five games on the road and three at home.

My comments in my column on September 11, I repeat here for the first eight games of 2014, with some slight revision:

Canucks will play eight games from January 1 to January 16 which will indicate what their mettle is and how well forged they are as a competitive team and excelling at that high level of expectation or not, after a one week rest at the Christmas break and a shootout loss on December 30 against the Philadelphia Flyers at home.

I think Iain MacIntyre would agree. I quote from his article previously quoted above:

So December, 2013, with injuries and travel and four back-to-backs was pretty remarkable.

It gives the Canucks an eight-point cushion in the Western Conference playoff race.

“We realized at the time, when we started winning, we had to get on a roll or we were going to be out of the playoffs,” Sedin said. “And a lot of points out of the playoffs. We climbed back in, and now we need to keep going.

“The feeling we have right now is a great feeling. We feel we’re going to win every game. For sure, we’ve won games because of this mindset.”

But confidence and positive energy got them only one point on Monday, giving the 23-11-7 Canucks 53 through 41 games. Their second half starts Wednesday with a New Year’s Day game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Vancouver’s six games after that are against Stanley Cup contenders: the Los Angeles Kings (twice), Anaheim Ducks (twice), Pittsburgh Penguins and St. Louis Blues.

We’re going to know more about the Canucks two weeks from now, and they’re going to know more about themselves.

Luongo, who had a lengthy practice session Monday morning, should be the first injured player back. Edler, out since Dec. 3, may be ready by the middle of the month.

What else do the Canucks need in the second half?

“More Decembers,” defenceman Dan Hamhuis, who played a staggering 32:30 on Monday, said. “We just have to build off what we’re doing. Our penalty kill has been great, but we’d like better results for our power play. Our goaltending has been great. We just have to continue to play good defence and find small ways to get better.

“You get a new coaching staff with new systems and new ways to play, and a run like this really solidifies everyone’s belief in our style of play and our identity.”

The third part of the question, how will the first two parts of the question figure in the Canucks success the second half of the season?

The Canucks need, as already stated, but emphasized here, need to keep playing as they are, improving as they make a playoff run. That won’t be easy, as the teams they are chasing are playing just as well as they are, and secondly, an Winters Olympic break is coming up.

The conclusion to the Olympic break will test the Canucks, coaches and players alike, to play well enough to make a last push, to not just make the playoffs, but do so with impact, excelling at a high level, being a legitimate threat to go deep into the playoffs.

The Stanley Cup challengers they face in January will give them a few answers as to where they are, what they lack and what they need to do.

In conclusion, with the Canucks game against Tampa Bay just minutes away:

John Tortorella has to do what he does best and which helped Tampa Bay to its first Stanley Cup—be the best coach he can be and get the most out of his players, letting every player know that he is boss,

The players are paid to execute the plan and perform as professionals. Tortorella must be accountable for being outcoached and for misjudgements regarding his assessments regarding each players abilities, capabilities, to execute the plan that he has developed to make the Canucks successful in all areas; and the players must be accountable for not executing that coaching plan, and playing up to that high level of expectation.

The Canucks have to do more than knock on the door of the NHL playoffs. They have to kick it in and live in it like they own it, with a passion only found on the streets, made for hockey on ice. And then the ultimate prize—–the Stanley Cup—–will be theirs.

Just saying…..

The following is a summary of where the Canucks are relative to the league, and play in the two conferences:

Canucks record in October, 2013: 9–5–1 (Home: 3–3–0 ; Road: 6–2–1)

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Canucks record in November, 2013: 4–5–4 (Home: 2–2–3 ; Road: 2–3–1)

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Canucks record in December, 2013: 10–1–2 (Home: 6–0–1 ; Road: 4–1–1)

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Western Conference Standings: as of morning of January 1, 2014:

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Western Conference-Wild Card Race: as of morning of January 1, 2014:

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League Standings: as of January 1, 2014 @ 1 pm PST:

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Canucks Against Eastern Conference: as of morning of January 1, 2014:

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Canucks Against Western Conference: as of morning of January 1, 2014:

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Tortorella Has To Be True To His Coaching Style….Just Saying….

Canucks have to out work, out play, out shoot, out hit, and out chance their opponent’s both at home and on the road. Unrealistic? Ye of little faith.

By Andrew Chernoff       September 11, 2013Just-saying

While all eyes may be on Roberto Luongo for the first few days of training camp that started today, new coach John Tortorella has to do what he does best and which helped Tampa Bay to its first Stanley Cup—be the best coach he can be and get the most out of his players, letting every player know that he is boss,

The players are paid to execute the plan and perform as professionals. Tortorella will be accountable for being outcoached and for misjudgements regarding his assessments regarding each players abilities, capabilities, to execute the plan that he has developed to make the Canucks successful in all areas; and the players will be accountable for not executing that coaching plan, and playing up to that high level of expectation.

The question I had for myself, and others I talked to about the Canucks during the summer hiatus was, is this season a retooling season for the Canucks or a rebuilding year.

The Canucks are in a tough division:

How the team comes out of training camp, and which players make up the roster after the first few games of the season, will help to determine whether it is a retooling or rebuilding year; and if the decisions made by Mr. Gillis in the off season were made wisely.

I am not confident that they have the speed, finesse, the toughness or the depth to match or better most of the teams in their division or in the league at this point of training camp.

I will hold my thoughts of how well the Canucks might size up against the teams in their division, and whether they will make the playoffs until they have played their first month.

My pessimistic side says to wait until the end of January, 2014 to see if the Canucks take a nosedive and their more often than not “seasonal slump” or whether they defy the odds and play at least .500 or better and make a strong playoff run to finish the season on a high note.

I will not wait that long. I will give it 15 games.

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Canucks will play seven road game stretch on the road from October 15 to October 25 which will indicate what their mettle is and how well forged they are as a competitive team and excelling at that high level of expectation or not.

Canucks have to out work, out play, out shoot, out hit, and out chance their opponent’s both at home and on the road. Unrealistic? Ye of little faith.