Category Archives: Nanos Poll

Nanos Nightly Leadership Tracking – Preferred PM: Trudeau (35.5%), Harper (29.1%), Mulcair (18.9%), May (5.2%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 18th

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Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 18th)

Trudeau closes campaign ahead of Harper as preferred Prime Minister

  • Leadership – Asked who they preferred as Prime Minister 35.5% said Trudeau, 29.1% said Harper, 18.9% said Mulcair, 5.2% said May, 1.8% said Duceppe and 9.6% of Canadians were unsure.
  • Nanos Party Power Index – The Index which is a composite of a series of questions including ballot preferences and impressions of the leaders had the Liberals at 58.1 out of a possible 100 points, the NDP with 49.8 points, the Conservatives with 49.3 points, the Greens with 30.4 points, and the BQ with 31.5 points in Quebec.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Today’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,400 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,400 respondents is ±2.0%, 19 times out of 20. 

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 16 to 18, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Data Summary for period ending October 18th, 2015:

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Nanos Nightly Ballot Tracking: Liberal (37.3%), Conservative (30.5%), NDP (22.1%), Green (4.7%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 17th

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Liberal seven point advantage continues over closing weekend

  • National Ballot – Tracking over the closing weekend has the Liberals with a seven point advantage over the Conservatives.  The Liberals have 37.3% support, the Conservatives 30.5%, the NDP 22.1%, and the Greens are at 4.7% nationally.
  • One Month Change – Compared to a month ago, the Liberals are up six points, the NDP are down nine points, and the Conservatives are up two points. The Liberals have been the primary beneficiaries of the decline in NDP support over the course of the campaign and over the past month the Liberal – NDP trend lines have been mirror images of themselves.
  • Larger Sample – Please note that today’s three day rolling average is based on 2,000 interviews (800 interviews Saturday, 800 interviews Friday and 400 interviews Thursday).
  • Last Report – Nanos will continue to do tracking today (Sunday) and will release its last election survey this evening ahead of the Elections Canada deadline.  No new polling can be released on Election Day but polls released prior to Election Day can be reported on Election Day (Section 328 of The Canada Elections Act).

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday and Saturday.  Today’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,000 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,000 respondents is ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 15 to 17, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

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Seven of ten Canadians say it’s time for a change – CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos Survey

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17/10/2015

Time for a change hits 71% – Trust in Trudeau to manage economy rises

The latest CTV News, Globe & Mail, Nanos survey suggests that the proportion of Canadians wanting change in the last weekend of the election has increased and also that the view that a Trudeau win would have a positive impact on the economy.  Also of note:

  • Time for a Change – The proportion of Canadians who think it is time for a change on the closing weekend of the election rose from 67 to 71 percent.  The appetite for change is stronger among women (76 per cent) compared to men (67 per cent).
  • Election Outcome Impact on Economy – Although a minority opinion among Canadians, the top choice for positive impact on the economy was a Liberal majority.  This view has doubled since July.  After citing a Liberal majority, 23 per cent of Canadians said a Conservative majority would be best for the economy. This view was unchanged since July.
  • Election Outcome Most Satisfying – The election outcome most frequently cited as causing satisfaction for voters was a Liberal majority (28 per cent) followed by a Conservative majority (21 per cent) and a NDP majority (19 per cent).
  • Trust to Manage the Economy – Thirty one per cent of Canadians trust Trudeau to manage the economy (up 13 points since July 2015), 29 per cent trust Harper to manage the economy (down two points since July), 22 per cent trust Mulcair to manage the economy (down nine points since July).
  • Party Victory Impact on Economy – Longitudinal tracking suggests that a Liberal victory is most likely to been as having a positive impact on the economy (59 per cent positive/somewhat positive the last weekend of the economy compared to 42 per cent positive/somewhat positive in July). Canadians are more likely to think that a Conservative victory will have negative or somewhat negative impact on the economy than a positive or somewhat positive impact.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out

The full survey results can be found by visiting our website.

Methodology
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,000 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between October 15th and 16th, 2015 as part of an omnibus survey. Participants were randomly recruited by telephone using live agents and administered a survey online. The sample included both land- and cell-lines across Canada. The results were statistically checked and weighted by age and gender using the latest Census information and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. Canadians without internet access or telephone lines were excluded by default.

Individuals randomly called using random digit dialling with a maximum of five call backs. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,000 Canadians is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The data presented in this research is part of a joint project by CTV, The Globe and Mail and Nanos Research.

Note: Charts may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Nanos Nightly Ballot Tracking: Liberal (37.0%), Conservative (30.7%), NDP (22.6%), Green (4.7%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 16th

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Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 16th)

Federal Liberals maintain six point lead over Conservatives

  • National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals at 37.0% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.7%, the NDP at 22.6%, and the Greens at 4.7%.
  • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party, 56.0% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.2% would consider the NDP, 39.7% would consider the Conservatives, 22.3% would consider the Greens and 31.6% would consider the BQ (Quebec only).
  • Sample Enhancement – Readers should note that on Friday the nightly sample was doubled to 800 live interviews with a total three day rolling average of 1,600 voters (400 on Wednesday, 400 on Thursday and 800 on Friday). 

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,600 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed with an additional 400 interviews conducted on Friday.  The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,600 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,600 respondents is ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 14 to 16, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

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Nanos Nightly Ballot Tracking: Liberal (36.5%), Conservative (30.6%), NDP (23.5%), Green (4.7%) – Three-day Tracking Ending October 15th

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Liberals lead by six points nationally in Nanos tracking

  • National Ballot -The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals with 36.5% support, the Conservatives at 30.6%, the NDP at 23.5%, and the Greens at 4.7% nationally.
  • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, 54.5% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 39.7% would consider the NDP, 37.9% would consider the Conservatives, 22.7% would consider the Greens and 33.1% would consider the BQ (Quebec only).   

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed.  The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 13 to 15, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.

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