Every region in Canada posted positive movement in the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index over the week following the Trudeau Liberals winning a majority national government.

“Positive sentiment on the economy trended up as the election pointed to a Liberal win”, said Nanos Research Group Chairman Nik Nanos.

“There is now the prospect of a fiscal partner to the Bank of Canada’s extremely accommodative monetary policy stance, and that should keep consumer expectations on its uptrend. Of note, both the money market and the consensus of economic analysts is assigning little probability to a change in monetary policy until the end of 2016, which should continue to help consumer spending–the main driver of growth at the moment”, said Robert Lawrie of Bloomberg Economics.

The BNCCI, a composite of a weekly measure of financial health and economic expectations, registered at 57.53 compared with last week’s 56.69. The twelve month high stands at 57.99.

The Bloomberg Nanos Pocketbook Index is based on survey responses to questions on personal finances and job security. This sub-indice was at 58.83 this week compared to 58.78 the previous week. The Bloomberg Nanos Expectations Index, based on surveys for the outlook for the economy and real estate prices, was at 56.24 this week (compared to 54.59 last week).

The average for the BNCCI since 2008 has been 56.72 with a low of 43.28 in December 2008 and a high of 62.92 in December 2009. The index has averaged 55.20 this year.

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Methodology

The BNCCI is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation, headquartered in Canada,  which operates in Canada and the United States.  The data is based on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (land- and cell-lines), using a four week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted by age and gender using the latest census information for Canada and the sample is geographically stratified to be representative of Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion index from 0 to 100. A score of 50 on the diffusion index indicates that positive and negative views are a wash while scores above 50 suggest net positive views, while those below 50 suggest net negative views in terms of the economic mood of Canadians.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 consumers in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

All references or use of this data must cite Bloomberg Nanos as the source.

Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index Data Summary for October 23rd, 2015: