Liberal seven point advantage continues over closing weekend

• National Ballot – Tracking over the closing weekend has the Liberals with a seven point advantage over the Conservatives.  The Liberals have 37.3% support, the Conservatives 30.5%, the NDP 22.1%, and the Greens are at 4.7% nationally.

• One Month Change – Compared to a month ago, the Liberals are up six points, the NDP are down nine points, and the Conservatives are up two points. The Liberals have been the primary beneficiaries of the decline in NDP support over the course of the campaign and over the past month the Liberal – NDP trend lines have been mirror images of themselves.

• Larger Sample – Please note that today’s three day rolling average is based on 2,000 interviews (800 interviews Saturday, 800 interviews Friday and 400 interviews Thursday).

• Last Report – Nanos will continue to do tracking today (Sunday) and will release its last election survey this evening ahead of the Elections Canada deadline.  No new polling can be released on Election Day but polls released prior to Election Day can be reported on Election Day (Section 328 of The Canada Elections Act).

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. A double sample of 800 interviews, per night, were conducted on Friday and Saturday.  Today’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 2,000 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 2,000 respondents is ±2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 15 to 17, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.