Nanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 16th)

Federal Liberals maintain six point lead over Conservatives

• National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals at 37.0% support followed by the Conservatives at 30.7%, the NDP at 22.6%, and the Greens at 4.7%.

• Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party, 56.0% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.2% would consider the NDP, 39.7% would consider the Conservatives, 22.3% would consider the Greens and 31.6% would consider the BQ (Quebec only).

• Sample Enhancement – Readers should note that on Friday the nightly sample was doubled to 800 live interviews with a total three day rolling average of 1,600 voters (400 on Wednesday, 400 on Thursday and 800 on Friday). 

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,600 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed with an additional 400 interviews conducted on Friday.  The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,600 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,600 respondents is ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 14 to 16, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.