Liberals hit an election high – largely at expense of the NDP

• National Ballot – The latest Nanos nightly tracking has the Liberals at 37.1% followed by the Conservatives at 29.4%, the NDP at 23.7%, and the Greens at 4.3% nationally.

• One Month Change –  A month ago it was practically a three way tie between the major parties in the federal election.  In the past 30 days the Liberals have gained about seven points (from 29.6% to 37.1%), the NDP have dropped about six points (from 30.4% to 23.7%) and the Conservatives have remained relatively unchanged (from 31.0% to 29.4%) factoring the margin of error for the research.

The team at Nanos in conjunction with Klipfolio have launched our new live political data portal where you run the numbers you want and can explore the trends and data you need.  This is part of our campaign, not only to provide the most reliable data to Canadians but to let them use it as they wish. We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians.

We were the first to do nightly tracking and now we are the first research organization to post live public opinion data for Canadians. Here’s the link to check it out 

To view the detailed tracking stats please visit our website.

Methodology

A national random telephone (land + cell) survey using live agents of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three day period.  Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed.  The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews.  To update the tracking a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender.  The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2011 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada.  Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.  The research has been registered with the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of which Nanos is a member.

Results are based on the three day calling window October 11, 13 and 14, 2015. The research was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail.